My 2017_01 Prediction About the American Industrialization Project of the Donald Trump

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His inauguration speech was a beauty, with a small blunder that he can not eradicate the radical you-know-what without imposing one's own way of life on others, because womens' rights, the toleration of LGBT-people, etc. are based of culture and if the people at certain areas of the world do not have that as part of their culture, then demanding them to allow women to learn, etc. is the same as imposing one's own way of life on them. But, as I said, I really loved his speech and the very fact that he staid true to himself was really refreshing. For comparison, I couldn't withstand Obama's fake speech, but the Trump's speech was worth to listen, because I believe it to be authentic. I also believe that even, when he did have other people helping him to assemble the speech, in the form of the core message of the speech the speech was actually his own creation. Nice, authentic. I doubt his ability to make all things listed in that speech true, but as of 2017_01 I do not doubt in his intentions, id est as of 2017_01 I believe that his inauguration speech was 100% sincere and as honest as a human is capable of being. If I did not believe that he means what he said in that speech, I would not bother to write the current blog post.

So, about the Donald Trump's abilities to make his American industrialization project come true. The short answer is that as of 2017_01 I do see at least one way, how he can make it all true, but I also believe that he lacks the knowledge and the type of consultants that he needs to succeed. I predict that he will fail, despite making a sincere and hard effort to succeed. The rest of this blog post is about the one solution that I believe to give him a chance to succeed and about how he does not have the knowledge and set of advisers to allow him to use that solution.

At his speech he spoke about re-building American industry by, I quote, "buying American", and, I quote, "hiring American", and by building the American public infrastructure, I quote: "with American hands." The story of his probable failure, in my mind, and I'm a software developer by profession, starts with automation. Future industry is not going to be built with "hands", but with ROBOTS. The "hands" are going to be bureaucrats' hands that push buttons of a fully automated production line and repair broken robots. But, OK, it is possible that the American blue collar workers will be trained. Therefore, the hurdle of automation can be overcome, despite the fact that Donald Trump's own business, hotels, are all based on manual labor and Donald Trump does not have any kind of an idea, how to adopt robotics to any of his own businesses. Of course, Donald Trump does not have any advisers to point that out to him, because his own family lacks people with technical or science backgrounds and now that he is a president, it's too late to start looking for a consultant for that, because the line of all sorts of looser-yes-men with doctoral level IT-diplomas is huge and he absolutely lacks the skills to distinguish one IT-person from another, but, in theory, Trump has a possibility to overcome even that hurdle. If not with smarts, then with pure luck.

About the "buying American". The way I understand, as of 2016 the situation was that the American semiconductor industry that produces the world-wide-famous top-notch semiconductor products, does it with European and Japanese factory equipment, because the American own industry is not able to provide the semiconductor production equipment that is precise enough, modern enough, top-of-the-line enough. The fall of the Soviet Union demonstrated that coercion does not work for making smart people to produce top-notch products. Therefore, if the Silicon Valley bunch wants to stay afloat, they have to import the key equipment that allows them to produce the world famous IT-products. As if that weren't already bad enough, at the era of automation, software, computers, one of the worlds best software development tools, JetBrains IDE (Integrated Development Environment), is literally developed in Russia, at Saint Petersburg. As of 2017_01 I as an Estonian software developer think that the JetBrains IDE is literally the best IDE that the 2017_01 planet Earth has to offer and I think this way despite living under the constant threat of being invaded by Russia/Kremlin. I suspect that many Silicon Valley developers log into live systems with their JetBrains IDE, so Putin does not really need to break into anything, because the Russian tool, JetBrains IDE, already has legal access to probably the majority of the servers that run many popular, western, internet sites. Probably the KGB/FSB has the same problem that the NSA has that they have an easy access to so many western servers that they are unable to manage and keep track of all those opportunities. The administration of the Donald Trump will also probably overlook the problem that the NSA, which is supposed to take care of cyber-security of United States governmental institutions, allowed both, the U.S. government civilian branch and the Pentagon to use intentionally weakened standards.

But, on the other hand, as a software developer I can also say that the "buying American" part can be made true by sticking with slower, less capable, computers that can be fully produced with fully American produced equipment and at least from technical perspective, certainly NOT FROM CULTURAL PERSPECTIVE, the slowness and smaller amount of RAM of the computers can be compensated with more rigorous software development. However, I emphasize that I do not imagine the Silicon Valley culture to be rigorous and thorough. Specially given the fact that practically all Silicon Valley software projects are short term projects that are sloppily cobbled together for some deadline, which might be a date, when some seed-round-money runs out. The GCC, the Linux that runs Android phones, many other projects that I do not even list here, because the list would be too long and the list would mostly be understandable only to other software developers, were not developed for any deadline, but they were developed for completeness and for quality. Even the people at the Pentagon DARPA figured it out that the only way to have some new technology available is to make sure that there is always something "in the pipe-line", at development, and the development takes exactly as long as it takes. Production of previously developed designs can be scaled up with more money, but even that takes some time, a year or so, till additional factory equipment that produces the new products gets produced and installed. (I do not know for sure, but I suspect that the reason, why the 2. World War era plane factories of the United States could be scaled quickly, was that at that era the factories were simpler, required less equipment, which allowed the factories to be scaled by asking the workers to walk into big halls and start doing manual labor.)

The fact that development always takes time, leads this contemplation to another issue with the Trump presidency: the presidency lasts only 4 years, 8 years at best. No matter, how he allocates the tax money or what "legislation" he creates, 4 years is not a period for true development projects. Even the Manhattan project actually had a lot of the hard development work done before the project even started. The very letter of Albert Einstein, where he describes the potential threat that the Nazi Germany might create such a bomb, already indicates that Einstein has put a lot of work into that project. The Manhattan scientists built their work on the work done before the Manhattan project. The Trump can overcome that issue by avoiding true development and resorting to Venture capitalists, who will cobble together some short-term project, where existing robotic components are cobbled together and those crappy things might actually be good enough to do the remote-controlled building of public infrastructure. Railroads might be built by a community of online gamers, who operate real railroad building robots in stead of virtual First-Person-Shooter characters. The main question to ask is: why hasn't the market done that already? Why haven't the local politicians gone out of their way to build the infrastructure of their own, local, districts? The second question to ask is, do the future transportation systems even need roads and railroads, because fully autonomous goods transportation vehicles do not necessarily need to take fast and direct routes to reach their destination. Autonomous goods transportation robots might use water-ways, deserts, sea, air. Some sort of a railroad is probably practical, provided that there are 2 pairs of tracks, one pair at each direction. On the other hand, may be there might be some totally new cheap and maintenance free type of transportation way, "road", that is specialized to be used only by goods transportation robots. The cost savings might come from the fact that those roads do not have to be certified for human transport and that might allow them to be built less safe and cheaper and/or faster. Another line of thought is the development of new types of human certified roads. May be the old way of using asphalt is not the most optimal way. May be safe roads might be built by using ready-made modules, which are produced fully automatically at some factory, where it is extra economical to produce them, and then the modules might be transported from that factory to the site, where a robot fully autonomously lays the modules on the ground. Again, probably possible, but Trump probably does not have advisers, who think that much "out of the box", because that kind of thought assumes some technical style of thinking, not just WallStreet or manual-labor-based-realestate-development type of thinking. I point out that Donald Trump's own hotels are run in a really manual manner, with human maids, human waitresses, etc.

All in all, as of 2017_01 I believe that the intentions of Donald Trump to rebuild the American industry are sincere, if not for anything else, then for the very fact that he needs the common Americans to be rich enough to afford his hotels, but unless he gets the United States patent office out of the way of that small percentage of people, who are entrepreneurial and work as technical specialists at the same time, his American re-industrialization project is going to fail. As of 2017_01 I also believe that despite his hypocrisy at many fronts and despite of what ever blunders he gets himself into during his presidency, the Donald Trump will be the least corrupt American president within the past few centuries, because he is greedy and the losses that he bears with the closing of his hotels is bigger than any amount of money that anybody can ever offer him for a bribe. That is to say, no matter what he does or says, he is really going to go out of his way to make sure that the common Americans can afford to be the clients of his hotels. In my 2017_01 view Donald Trump is a true self-made man, because inheriting a huge business from one's parents is a very helpful good start, but it is certainly not sufficient to achieve the kind of success in real estate development and other fronts that he has been successful at. I really like that aspect about him, in addition to some other aspects that are too laborious to write here, but given his preference of torture and general autocratic approach I will probably try to avoid ever being in the same room with him, and that is super-easy for me to accomplish, because I'm lucky enough to be "nobody", someone totally outside of the circles that he has any contact with. As of 2017_01 I see that either the U.S. will have more-of-the-same with a heavy, but futile, effort to change something and the huge mess that comes from that futile effort (futile because of the lack of input from IT-professionals at the planning phase of the grand undertaking), or, may be partly out of luck, some things, may be even all of them, will actually come true, the patent trolls are removed from the way of the smart and entrepreneurial people and the tax money is actually funneled to the development of multipurpose technologies that can be used for both, military purposes and for building the civilian infrastructure. I do not really know, that's just my 2017_01 wild guess.

Thank You for reading this blog post :-)

P.S. I am assembling a list of all failures and successes of the Donald Trump during his presidency. Currently I have an intention to publish that list as a blog post at the end of his presidency, after the 4 years. I have the list in a form of a blog post draft. I'll just add my observations to that draft during the next 4 years :-D



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Update on 2017_02_09

The Chris Kohlhepp blog has a subsection titled Macroeconomics & Robotics.

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