A View on Macroeconomics in 2014 and a Prediction, Version 0

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Once upon a time, before the invention of the printing press, books were copied by rewriting them manually. As it is with all manual processes, errare humanum est. In year 2014 a laser printer makes less mistakes than a human and is cheaper to keep than a slave that is willing to work for food and shelter. I know from first hand experience that it takes about 5 seconds for a code generation tool to generate a kind of code that takes me literally a week to write manually. Yes, You read it correctly: it takes less than an hour for my average computer to do a month worth of work of a 100 person hardworking team. Practically, another parallel might be a soldier with a modern machine gun, gunning down a whole field full of professional, highly trained, samurais. That is to say, manual labour can never compete with proper automation.

As of 2014_12 my prediction is that people, who can only offer manual labour, will be economically so irrelevant, useless, that they will be in the same category with wild animals. The wild animals just live and eat and have sex and are not capable of participating in economics in any other way than being slaughtered, consumed for food, bio-experiments, biomaterials. The only people, who are capable of participating in economics are the ones, who use proper automation. After the oil is replaced by other, less pollutant, energy solutions, the oil kings will become obsolete. On the other hand, top notch equipment alone will not help either. For example, owning a fine laser printer probably will not be enough to earn a fine living, despite the fine technical capabilities of the laser printer. If one were to print something very smart and unique with it, something that others do not print with their laser printers, then the automatically reproduced product is something that other economically capable people might be willing to exchange their creations, resources, for.

As human intellectual abilities will always be limited, people will never be able to learn everything. I predict that in year 2300 people, who just live, eat and have sex, are treated as if they were zoo animals or pets. They will be treated a bit like black Africans are treated in year 2014. The most resource rich transactions will take place between people, who offer consultancy services to one-another. Automation will take care of the dumb stuff and no humans are asked to manually manufacture paper-clips.

That process explains the relative income cap between blue-collar-workers and the people, who offer consulting or design services. Politically it means that the "pets" will depend on resources that are produced by the economically capable people. As communists offer exactly that, rob the capable and give to the lazy or incapable, democracy will mean a stagnant situation, where the communists will win the elections practically every time. As of 2014_12 it seems to me that France and West-Germany have moved exactly to that state and the United States is struggling, but moving exactly to the same, France-like, state. Even in England one of the major parties is the Labor Party. Consequently, democracy is not the best phenomena for the brightest and most hard-working people, but there is hope: all of the parasites can be defeated by technologically outrunning them and that is something, where the brightest and most hard-working people have a great advantage and opportunity. After defeating the parasites the preferred situation, probably, is a kind of situation, where there exists a real balance of powers, balance of capabilities, Anarchy. Probably the environment that affects the future evolution of the Homo Sapiens is the economics and class-wars, where the dumb majority that is not capable of contributing to the wealth of the humanity, will be almost eradicated like endangered species usually are. It might be that the smartest, more capable, people will move to Mars or other celestial bodies and the dumber ones will have a lot of fine sex and become extinct due to overpopulation related issues on Earth. Probably the poles of Earth will be populated before space colonies emerge. Given the amount of power that the sun irradiates to directions other than the planet Earth, "green" (I'd rather use the word "yellow") energy for space travel is certainly abundant.

I find it kind of fun to imagine (in 2014_12) that when in 2014_12 Amazon web store sends some small goods from America, the place that Europeans had once upon a time hard time "discovering", in 2 weeks for a price of 10€ (read: about 10 batches of bread) straight to one's door step in Estonia, then in the future there might be a 2 week delivery from the Moon, for a price that is less than 10 batches of bread.


To be continued or modified at will.

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